Year 5 Probability & Chance WebQuest - s290388 EMA200

Introduction

Welcome Year 5 students to our new Maths Unit Webquest!
Follow the links and tabs to explore and learn about CHANCE & PROBABILITY.

All of our lessons and learning is going to be done using this Webquest created especially for you! 

We are going to explore chance and probability, expand our language, conduct experiments, record information, make predictions and realise how we use chance and probability in our everyday lives.

What do we know about Chance and Probability?

What can we remember from Year 4 or lessons earlier this year?

Lets watch this introductory short clip on the likelihood of everyday events occurring...

 

 

Task

Year 5 Students - Your mission this unit is to design and conduct your own Probability Experiment. The lessons and tasks that I have prepared will guide you in preparation for your final task. By the end of this webquest you will be able to successfully:

  • Label two way table fluently
  • Apply fractions to the direct probability of an everyday event
  • Able to recognise outcomes as equally likely, certain, and impossible.
  • Able to identify language of probability as fractions

Do you accept this mission?

Process

Welcome to your LESSONS,
Each lesson below is here to progressively increase your knowledge and understanding of the whole notion of probability/chance. You will begin with LESSON 1, and by LESSON 4 you will be ready to produce your own final experiment which will be marked and go towards your final grade. Good luck, and always ask your teacher for any help, guidance or further breakdown of a misunderstood concept. 

LESSON 1 
Describing Probability and the Probability Scale

Class Discussion; the Chance of events happening and the vocabulary used for Probability and Chance. 
What will happen every day? What might happen every day? What will not happen every day?

Vocabulary - will, might not, likely, unlikely, certain, probable

Task 1: Word Cloud 
https://www.abcya.com/games/word_clouds 
Using ABCYa! Word Cloud Generator, in pairs try and think of as many Probability and Chance Words that you can, then email your final copy for your teacher to print out and put around the classroom. Some Vocabulary words have already been given to you above  

Task 2: Probability Line
Create a probability line in your work book, just like the one in the video above, to place the Class Discussion Every Day Activities in order of likelihood of occurring, starting at 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). For example: 0 - It will be Sunday tomorrow (Today is Wednesday).

Then using your probability line, convert your whole numbers into fractions. 
0 = 0%
1 = 100%
1/2 or 0.5 = 50%
1/4 or 0.25 = 25%

Try converting the rest on your own.

Then working in pairs, discuss on your probability line where these given scenarios will go?
https://education.nsw.gov.au/teaching-and-learning/student-assessment/smart-teaching-strategies/media/documents2/numeracy_-stats/Certain-and-uncertain-events.pdf
Finally discuss all together as a class and agree where on the probability line on the smart board they belong. 

In groups play a few games of probability bingo:
https://www.teachingideas.co.uk/probability/probability-cards

LESSON 2
Finding Probability and Experimental Probability

Probability of an event happening = Number of ways it can happen
                                                           Total number of outcomes

So, When a single die is thrown, there are six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
Therefore the probability of any one of them is 1/6.

Or for example when a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes:

  • heads (H
  • tails (T)

We say that the probability of the coin landing H is ½ and the probability of the coin landing T is ½. 

Probability does not tell us exactly what will happen, it is just a guide.

Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will come up?
Probability says that heads have a ½ chance, so we can expect 50 Heads.
But when we actually try it we might get 48 heads, or 55 heads ... or anything really, but in most cases it will be a number near 50.

Task 3: Possible Outcomes and Tallying 
Your task is to throw a die 60 times and record the results on a tally table like the one below. Complete the tally in your workbook. 

Die Face

Tally Frequency 
1    
2    
3    
4    
5    
6    
                                 Total Frequency =  60 

*if you have forgotten how to tally follow this link https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/tally-marks.html

Questions:

  • Which face came up most often? ____
  • Which face came up least often? ____
  • Do you think you would get the same results if you did this again? Yes / No

Lesson 3
Predicting Probability and Chance 

Task 4: Experimental Probability and Prediction 
Now, experiment on your own with other possible outcomes ie. tossing a coin, choosing from a bag of marbles and using a tally table to relay your results. 
Before you begin, try predicting what will happen? A prediction is an educated guess. 
For example, if you choose from a bag of marbles:

  • Which colour marble will come up most often? ____
  • Which colour marble come up least often? ____
  • Do you think you would get the same results if you did this again? Yes / No

Understand if an experiment is repeated, the results are not necessarily the same each time.

After the experiment was tested, did your predictions match the final outcome? If not, why not? What was different?

Lesson 4
Experiment Assessment

Rock, Paper, Scissors Probability Lesson is an investigation into the mathematics of the popular game of the same name.  Students play Rock, Paper, Scissors (RPS), list possible outcomes, and analyze the theoretical and experimental probabilities in two versions of the game.  They interact with other students, collect data, judge the fairness of games, and participate in the RPS Tournament.

Task 5: Final Assessment - Who will win the game - Rock, Paper or Scissors?

After your teacher has introduced the game of Rock - Paper – Scissors it is now your challenge to use all of your knowledge of chance and probability to determine what gesture will win the game!

Step 1: Predict 
This is your chance to make a informed prediction of which gesture will win! In theory, the gestures have an even chance, but what is altering that chance?

Step 2: Play and Record 

  • In pairs, you are to play 100 games of Rock – Paper – Scissors and record the winning gestures for each game.
  • You are given the opportunity to select your method for recording - we have been practicing using frequency tables.
  • Finally all students will come together with the class to reveal and discuss their results.

Step 3: From your results

  • Which gesture was more likely to arise? 
  • Which was least likely?

 

Evaluation

TEACHERS ONLY

Year 5 Probability Assessment Rubric

Name:

Date:

 

Criteria

All criteria exceeded  pts: 5

All Criteria Achieved pts: 4

Some criteria achieved pts: 2

No criteria met pts: 0

Score

Records data of a repeated chance experiment

 

 

 

 

 

                  /5

Correctly identifies chance experiment outcome

 

 

 

 

 

                 /5

Can create chance statements using topic vocabulary in context

 

 

 

 

 

                /5

Can sequence events from most likely to least likely

 

 

 

 

 

                /5

Comment:

 

 

Total score

 

                 /20

                                                                                                                             

 

Teacher Page

Curriculum

Year 5 Standards for Chance :

  • List outcomes of chance experiments involving equally likely outcomes and represent probabilities of those outcomes using fractions (ACMSP116)
  • Recognise that probabilities range from 0 to 1 (ACMSP117)

The source for curriculum content is the Australian Curriculum - Mathematics Foundation to Year 6 content and sequence. Please click on the PDF document below to access.
https://c44a390f-e913-4082-9c34-f4914bede305.filesusr.com/ugd/810d92_2125533de4e5425aa02645260e018b5b.pdf